Well the results are out, and at the time of writing the situation stands as follows:
Party | Win | Lead | |
BJP | 97 | 14 | |
INC | 69 | 9 | |
JD(S) | 22 | 6 | |
Other | 6 | 0 | |
The above results are taken from the Election Commission of India website, found here.
It is often said that voters cast their ballot not necessarily to put the best party in, but keep the worst party out. If this is the case, then surely, the voters have exercised their power by almost decimating the JD(S). The party has now been reduced to 9.8% (current seats) to 12.5% (if leads are converted into wins) of the parliament. Hardly a performance to be proud of, but some would say this would have been expected, considering that for the past 6 to 8 months, the very same party has been holding the state to ransom. The BJP seems to have learnt from the doublespeak of the JDS, with LK Advani earlier in the election clearly stating that under no circumstances would the BJP consider sharing power with the JD(S). This therefore meant that for the BJP to preserve any amount of pride, they would need to be the single largest party within the house. If they won majority on their own it would have been a bonus. This is exactly what has happened, with the BJP now being asked to form power.
The planks, on which the BJP campaigned, were not their usual communal rhetoric. Rather it was "good governance", with the poster boy of BJP's development mantra, Narendra Modi campaigning extensively for the state. Analysts may also go insofar as to call it anti-incumbency and they would be right in certain aspects of it, such as the decimation of the JD(S). However, it was more a case of not voting for the JD(S) – INC alliance than voting for the BJP. Moreover, there was a feeling from many in the state that the INC Candidate for CM, SM Krishna was more CM of Bangalore than a CM of Karnataka. Indeed the very same opinion was carried out by analysts at CNN-IBN amongst other TV stations. In addition, many in Bangalore itself, blame him for infrastructure woes that have continued to plague the "Silicon Valley of India".
What is most surprising in this vote is the following:
1. The BJP has redefined its voter base as being a part for all of Karnataka. In their previous outings (2004, 1999), the BJP had managed to strike a chord in rural Karnataka and South Karnataka, yet did not make much of an impact in the North and within Bangalore itself (in '99 they won 40 seats, 79 in '04). This election, by making gains across the state, it has re-emerged and proved to be a serious contender for the Lok Sabha polls in 2009.
2. JD(S) now reduced to a minority voice within the house. The once powerful party of Karnataka, which had given India a Prime Minister in the form of HD Deve Gowda from 1996-1997, has now been reduced to having just a feeble voice in Vidhan Soudha. The party had won 58 seats in 2004 and 10 seats in 1999. The "power" of the JD(S) was attributed to its charisma of its leader, which is now slowly on the wane.
Aditya, has a very good post here detailing the results in a more technical detail. I also would like to add an rejoinder to his point (1). Not only did the BJP project Yediyurappa as their CM, they projected him as the only CM candidate. However, the INC was divided by leaders such as H K Patil creating an impression amongst voters that they were also likely candidates. Hence voters who would be looking for leadership would have much rather looked at the BJP in terms of accountability.
In conclusion, the elections set up a very nice "teaser" for Lok Sabha '09. At this stage, I am prepared to call the General elections as going towards the NDA team. However, as they say, "A week is a long time in politics"
