As a very big fan of cricket, I am also deeply interested in the statistics that underpin game. For every aspect of cricket, you can be sure that there is a statistic for it. Balls faced? Check. Balls bowled? Check. Catches taken? Check. Singles taken? Check...and so on. However, today, I wanted to find out a different statistic. And it was all to do with the upcoming game between India and Pakistan.
India v Pakistan as a contest has almost no parallels with any other country v country contest in any other sport barring football/soccer games between the Easter Europe nations. The two countries have fought 3 wars, and still remain wary of each other. A mix of history, politics, skill and temperament by both teams means that there is no contest between these two nations that is without drama, excitement action and on top of it all, some amazing cricket.
The genesis for this piece of "cricket analytics" started oh-so-innocently, with a colleague of mine telling me "Prasanna, I don't think India will win tomorrow". When I pressed further for the reason why, assuming it might have been on the cricketing skill of India, the answer I got was "Tomorrow's friday, the day of 'jumma'". 'Jumma' according to
Wikipedia is the traditional Friday prayer for Muslims. Pakistan's official title is "the Islamic Republic of Pakistan". I fondly remember 'Jumma' from the superhit song
"Jumma Chumma De De" from the movie Hum. Nevertheless, I concurred that it would be rather hard for India. I did recall the fact (or so I thought) that India v Pakistan games on a Friday, had always ended in a Pakistan victory.
However, we did not rest there. For every 'cricketing fact' there is always a way to determine its veracity. The "bible" for cricketing statistics, is the
ESPN Cricinfo StatsGuru. Armed with this website, as well as having time to kill, we proceeded on the following:
We first found out the number of ODIs played between India and Pakistan, sorted by the date on which these ODIs played. India and Pakistan, have played 126 ODIs, of which 122 have had a result with India winning just under 41% of matches. How many have occured on each of the days of the week? Well the answer is below:
| Wins | Loss | N/R | % Wins | % Loss | % N/R |
|---|
| Sunday | 11 | 16 | 1 | 39% | 57% | 4% |
| Monday | 5 | 4 | 0 | 56% | 44% | 0% |
| Tuesday | 6 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 50% | 0% |
| Wednesday | 7 | 7 | 3 | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Thursday | 5 | 6 | 0 | 45% | 55% | 0% |
| Friday | 5 | 24 | 0 | 17% | 83% | 0% |
| Saturday | 11 | 9 | 0 | 55% | 45% | 0% |
However, this includes all World Cup games. India and Pakistan have played 4 ODI World Cup games. Note that India has never lost to Pakistan. What days of the week were these games played? Answer:
| WC Games Played |
|---|
| Sunday | 1 |
| Monday | 1 |
| Tuesday | |
| Wednesday | 1 |
| Thursday | |
| Friday | |
| Saturday | 2 |
So the next question is, if these games are taken away from the overall tally, how does this affect India's chances?
| Day of Week | Wins | % Wins |
|---|
| Sunday | 10 | 37% |
| Monday | 4 | 50% |
| Tuesday | 6 | 50% |
| Wednesday | 6 | 38% |
| Thursday | 5 | 45% |
| Friday | 5 | 17% |
| Saturday | 9 | 50% |
So there you go. India v Pakistan on Fridays means India has a 17% of victory. However, as Disraeli remarked "There are three kinds of liars: liars, damned liars and statisticians"!!! Cricket is a game of glorious uncertainities! May the best team win!!!
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